Ticking The Boxes

Ticking The Boxes

Now we know that the “big referendum” on whether to move to Alternative Vote (AV) as our preferred voting system for the United Kingdom is due to take place next year.  As I’ve stated previously, my preferred method (as you might expect) is First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) but to be completely honest I am open to other methods.  They all have their strengths and weaknesses.

Secretly, of course, the Lib Dems don’t really want AV.  They just see it as a waystation towards full Proportional Representation (PR).  Now PR I would be against – as I detest ‘party lists’ and see them as a method of disenfranchising the voter and destroying the public’s vital ability to remove representatives with whom they are disatisfied.  But AV preserves the “local representative” with ties to a community – and so in principle my heart will not break if the British public choose it in 2011.

For anybody who doesn’t know how AV works – it is quite similar to our current FPTP system.  But you don’t tick any boxes.  Instead, you ‘rank’ the people who are standing for the seat in order of preference.  If one person wins outright (with over 50% of the vote) they are elected.  If not, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated - and anybody who voted for them then has their second-preferences counted into the grand total.  This continues; eliminating the bottom candidate and reallocating lower preferences until somebody gains 50% and is elected.

The effect of this system is that in ’swing seats’ where there is no obvious majority candidate – seats will tend to go to whoever is the “middle ground” candidate who polar opposites might unhappily choose as a ’worst best option’.  You can see why the Liberal Democrats are so keen on this…  Critics might suggest that this will lead to mediocre winners who specialise in avoiding upset (or making difficult decisions.)  But the fact is that while there may be some truth to that  - there are some of those anyway even with our current system.  We don’t really know the outcome unless we do it.  Which should not be read as: “let’s give it a try.”  I will be campaigning for FPTP - I’m just saying that in this instance – if the public want to try something new – the world probably wont end. 

In other countries AV has occasionally led to a ‘fracturing’ of the old main parties into many smaller parties and has often led to long-term coalition governments.  Now as we can see with our current coalition this sort of arrangement can be quite effective.  But remember that the Lib Dems have a tiny fraction of the MPs that the Conservatives (or Labour) have and as such their influence is, perhaps, a little muted.  If they were negotiating from a larger base I suspect we’d have a very different coalition.  So we should not presume that just because this coalition seems to be working – all coalitions will be successful.  I rather feel that strong majority governments can take dramatic action to save the day (as Margaret Thatcher did following the disastrous economic policies of the Seventies) but can equally do a great deal of damage (ie. the Great Clunking Fist himself.) 

In the end you have to ask yourself what you think is better.  AV is a preferential voting system.  Like other preferential systems it will generally tend to elect somebody who is “most broadly acceptable” in favour of somebody who is supported by the actual majority.  On some level this might initially seem fair.  But just imagine that you have campaigned hard for your preferred candidate and are excited to see them win with a majority – but its not quite enough to get over that vital new line.  Then, some candidate you despise, who was clearly beaten in the first round, zooms up the rankings on “second choice” preferences and wins.  In that circumstance, do you and the majority who voted for the loser, really feel that democracy has been well-served?

Beware change just for the sake of change.  Some changes are good.  Some just sound good.  The grey area between the two is where disappointment waits to ambush you.