What I Think Might Happen
I know that nobody knows. But in the past when I’ve guessed things that might happen I’ve gotten a fair few things right. Of course I’ve also got some wrong. But just for fun, this is my guess for the national political outcomes of this year and next year.
(1) Boris Johnson will be our new Prime Minister
– Not a massively controversial statement. It’s patently clear he’s going to win and I predict a very comfortable win.
(2) The Press will do to Boris what the American and World Press do to Trump.
Boris is going to be played by the media and constantly attacked on every level. He might not get it as bad as Trump does, but the huge divisions which mostly come down to attacks on the individual dressed up as attacks on policy will be very familiar.
(3) Parliament will do everything it can to stop Brexit at the end of November and Boris will have to force it through using some method that will be called “undemocratic” but it actually the only truly democratic way to honour the Brexit vote.
At this point one of two things will happen. Either Boris will win and we’ll leave with no deal, or Parliament will win and prevent us leaving. Of the two I think the latter is marginally more likely.
(4) Parliament will win by forcing a vote of no confidence in the Government and winning it, as their attempt to prevent Brexit.
(5) We will then have a general election. If the public blame Boris for the failure to leave then we will have a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party and a significant representation from the Brexit Party. If the public don’t blame Boris then we will have a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party and significantly less representation from the Brexit Party.
(5) Labour will form a Government with the SNP, the Lib Dems, or both.
(6) People will find out what real left-wing Government madness is like.
(7) In America, Trump will win a second term in 2020.
Of course, things are so crazy, all this could well be completely wrong. We shall see.